Kazakhstan's economy to slow down in 2024, then accelerate in 2025 - ADB
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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has marginally revised downwards its economic growth outlook for Kazakhstan in 2024, following weaker expansion in services in the first half of the year coupled with lower oil outputs, massive floods, and a slowdown in investment, ADB reports.
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2024, the latest edition of ADB’s flagship publication, projects 3.6% growth of Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year, slightly lower than the bank’s previous forecast of 3.8% in April 2024. The Central Asian nation’s economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5.1% in 2025.
In the first half of 2024, tax revenue collection declined as receipts from oil duty and value added tax were lower compared to the same period in 2023. The decline in tax collection was offset by higher transfers from the sovereign wealth fund, the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK), with the government utilizing three-quarters of planned annual transfers in the period. This partially led to the national currency appreciating as the central bank converted the NFRK foreign currency receipts to tenge to meet the government transfer requests.
While the economic growth prospects for Kazakhstan’s look positive in the medium term, its fiscal challenges need to be addressed to ensure sustainable and inclusive economic growth," said ADB Country Director for Kazakhstan Utsav Kumar.
Average inflation slowed to 8.9% in the first 7 months of 2024 down from 17.2% last year. Inflation is projected to slow further to 6.1% in 2025, reflecting tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate enabled by substantial foreign reserves and commodity export earnings. The combined reserves in the NFRK and the central bank surpassed $100 billion as of June 2024.
Kazakhstan joined ADB in 1994. ADB has since committed about $7 billion in loans to the government and private sector, grants, and technical assistance.
ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members-49 from the region.
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Islamic Development Bank to invest $1.15bn in Kazakhstan's water sector
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The parties signed the relevant agreement at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) held in Baku. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Nurlan Baybazarov noted that this is the largest project financed by the Islamic Bank in history, primeminister.kz reports.
In addition, the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) will allocate a grant of $3.5 million for the development of the water sector of Kazakhstan.
The IDB will also participate in the implementation of the project ‘Development of Climate Resilient Water Resources’ developed by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. Earlier the parties signed the Protocol of negotiations on the first phase of the project.
The first stage of the financed project envisages construction of 4 new and reconstruction of 4 existing reservoirs, reconstruction and overhaul of 115 canals, including the Astana reservoir recharge project. Construction works will take place in Akmola, Almaty, Zhambyl, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, West Kazakhstan regions, Zhetisu region and Astana city.
In addition, the project envisages technical cooperation between IDB and the Ministry in the study of water and river basin problems by the Kazakh Research Institute of Water Management, as well as evaluation of the implementation of early response systems for the Information and Analytical Centre for Water Resources.
This includes plans to technically equip the Republican State Enterprise Kazvodkhoz and build an automation centre to improve water management.
The Head of State has repeatedly emphasised the importance of attracting investment in the water sector. We are facing the task of modernising and adapting water infrastructure to the ongoing climatic changes. Financing by such a reputable institution as the Islamic Development Bank demonstrates the high confidence in our country, the investment policy and the ongoing socio-economic reforms," Nurlan Baibazarov noted.
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Olzhas Bektenov: Business needs to feel confident and able to expand and invest in tomorrow
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Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov took part in the forum of small and medium-sized businesses, where the issues of current development of entrepreneurship were raised, measures taken to improve state support for domestic producers were noted, as well as ideas for further improvement of the business climate in the country were voiced, primeminister.kz reports.
More than 450 SME representatives from all regions of Kazakhstan took part in the forum. Attention was paid to the development of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, increasing the share of in-country value, simplification of administrative procedures through digitalisation of services, implementation of investment projects, expansion of export potential of TNA, etc.
Olzhas Bektenov noted that within the framework of implementation of the tasks set by the Head of State in the Address "Fair Kazakhstan: law and order, economic growth, public optimism", the Government carries out comprehensive work to increase business activity and create favourable conditions for doing business.
Thus, in accordance with the introduced principle of regulation ‘from scratch’, since last year more than 10 thousand requirements preventing businesses from developing have been cancelled. Financial assistance measures are being implemented to support priority sectors of small and medium-sized enterprises. Within the framework of subsidies and partial guaranteeing on loans from second-tier banks, the coverage has increased 5 times since 2019 to over 150 thousand projects. At the same time, the amount of subsidies paid to them increased 8 times.
Overall, as a result of the comprehensive measures taken, the share of SMEs in the country's economy has increased to 37 per cent. More than 4 million people are currently employed in business. Over the past six months, SMEs produced 34 trillion tenge worth of products, an increase of about 20% compared to the same period last year.
The President has clearly stated that opening the way for domestic businesses and investors is one of the priority tasks of the Government and all state bodies. Our goal is to create an economy in which business will feel confident and will have the opportunity to realise their ideas, expand and invest in the future. For this purpose, it is important that every entrepreneur can count on open and prompt interaction with government agencies. In the context of global challenges and rapid technological progress, it is necessary not only to develop mechanisms to support entrepreneurs, but also to actively diversify the economy. And here the role of business is paramount," Olzhas Bektenov emphasised.
The effectiveness of support measures on the part of the state was noted on the example of agro-industrial complex. This year concessional lending for spring field and harvesting works has been increased 2.5 times and totalled 580 billion tenge, which allowed to obtain high yields for all types of crops. Prime Minister noted the prospects of achieving similar indicators in the SME sector. In this case, state support should be accompanied by counter obligations of business in the form of providing the domestic market with high-quality and inexpensive products, deep processing, creation of permanent jobs and gradual enlargement with a view to export.
A serious potential for the development of an SME belt around large businesses has been identified. Large enterprises should actively enter into long-term contracts with local companies. This will become an obligatory condition for receiving state support. Relevant instructions have been given to all development institutions.
This year, the Government has taken a number of decisions in terms of priority support for domestic producers. Today, the list of goods purchased by the state procurement in priority order from Kazakhstani commodity producers has been expanded 3 times to 4.5 thousand types. The amount of concluded contracts increased by 31% and amounted to 167 billion tenge. Changes have also been introduced in procurement procedures by large customers (Samruk-Kazyna Fund, subsoil users): this year more than 100 long-term contracts for the amount of 470 billion tenge and more than 260 off-take contracts for 134 billion tenge have been concluded with domestic commodity producers, which is 14 times more than in the same period last year.
Within the framework of the Year of Working Professions announced by the President, special attention is paid to the development of human capital, integration of science and production. Olzhas Bektenov urged businesses to focus on improving human resources, providing an effective base for student internships and employment of graduates through job quotas.
During the forum, the chairman of the Presidium of the Atameken NCE Raimbek Batalov reported on the development of the ecosystem of small and medium-sized businesses in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Social entrepreneur Zhanagul Zhaparova told about participation in the project "One Village - One Product", aimed at the development of the village through the production of the whole chain from raw materials to finished product. The heads of Kazelectromash LLP Vitaly Raspopin and Kubley LLP Zaure Berekesheva shared their experience in mastering high conversion and development of meat processing through the cluster approach.
On the margins of the forum Prime Minister got acquainted with the line of domestic products. Of particular importance for the economy are the projects implemented by Kazakh entrepreneurs throughout the production chain. On the example of the textile industry the Head of the Government was presented a number of enterprises, which are engaged in growing cotton, production of yarns and fabrics, as well as production of finished products, which are in demand both in the country and abroad. In this context Olzhas Bektenov emphasised the importance of the new approach to support projects according to the principle of creating clusters based on the direction of the region. Together with the business community were discussed issues, the solution of which will give an additional impetus to the development of SMEs. The Prime Minister gave a number of instructions to relevant ministries and organisations.
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Olzhas Bektenov meets leading Chinese companies in Shanghai: $2.5bn agreements signed
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Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Olzhas Bektenov as part of a working visit to the People's Republic of China took part in the Kazakh-Chinese investment roundtable with business representatives. In the city of Shanghai will hold talks with the Premier of the State Council of the PRC Li Qiang, scheduled to participate in the VII China International Import Exhibition, primeminister.kz reports.
The main purpose of the working visit is to implement the agreements reached between the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping on doubling the volume of bilateral trade turnover from the historical record of last year at the level of $41 billion.
The round table was attended by representatives of companies that are leaders in metallurgy, energy, machine building and automotive industry, carbon chemistry, agribusiness, pharmaceuticals and others. The Kazakhstan delegation was represented by the heads of relevant ministries and large domestic enterprises.
Prospects for the development of joint projects in priority sectors of the economy were considered. The participants of the meeting noted that trade and economic partnership between Kazakhstan and China is on the rise. Today about 5 thousand joint ventures are successfully operating in Kazakhstan.
Among the major joint Kazakh-Chinese projects are the construction of a plant for the production of soda ash together with Camc Engineering, the Sastobe chemical complex with Tianjin Cement Industry Design and Research Institute and a plant for the production of explosives with Yunnan Industrial Explosive Group. The construction of the CHANGAN, HAVAL, CHERY automobile production plant with a 90,000-unit capacity based on small-unit assembly is nearing completion. An Investment Agreement for the production of Geely, Exeed, KAIYI passenger cars for $150 million with the creation of 1,000 jobs has also been signed. The projects make it possible to create technological enterprises capable of producing high-quality domestic products. These indicators, according to the business communities of the two countries, confirm the sustainability and productivity of bilateral partnership.
The head of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan noted that joint work in this direction continues, and the existing potential of trade relations demonstrates the prospects for further diversification of trade turnover and expansion of investment cooperation.
Today the cooperation between our countries is developing on an upward path. In accordance with the task set at the highest level, we intend to double our mutual trade indicators in the near future. Kazakhstan and China have huge potential for the realisation of joint investment projects. Together we can open new horizons for interaction and increase the effectiveness of cooperation. To this end, we should actively work to expand transit opportunities, strengthen industrial cooperation and build ties between our business communities. The Government of Kazakhstan is ready to expand partnerships and build strong bridges between our nations. We will provide support to investors, creating favourable conditions for business and contributing to the success of each project. I am convinced that thanks to our joint efforts, new investment initiatives will give a powerful impetus to the development of the real sector of the economy, its diversification and improvement of the quality of life of our citizens," Olzhas Bektenov said.
Prime Minister stressed that an important priority for the country is the development of industry and urged Chinese companies to closer partnership with the Kazakhstani business community.
In turn, during the dialogue, representatives of leading Chinese companies showed interest in Kazakhstan as a reliable partner for the implementation of strategic projects.
Executive member of the Board of Directors of China Huadian Corporation Zu Bin in his speech reported on the expansion of cooperation with Kazakhstan in the field of energy, including emissions reduction; acting CEO of CHN Energy Investment Yan Guochun informed about plans to launch the first coal-chemical complex in Kazakhstan; Chairman of the Board of Directors of Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry Group Zhang Zhixiang about the development of cooperation in the steel industry; Chairman of the Board of Directors of Zijin Mining Group Chen Jinghe reported on plans for the implementation of projects in the region of Kazakhstan.
Vice President of CP Pharmeceutical Group Xie Lei on investment in the creation of a cluster in the field of medicine; General Director of Beiqi Foton Motor Wu Xibin on localisation of production in the automotive industry in the Republic of Korea; Chairman of the Board of Directors of ACRE Engineering Consulting Company Yang Zhuni informed on cooperation in the field of technology transfer; General Director of Sinotruk International Zhao Hua informed on plans to localise production of high-quality automotive trucks in the Republic of Korea.
Chairman of the Board of Directors of Darwin Biotech Co., Ltd. Chen Jianheui shared his intentions to expand cooperation with Kazakh partners in the field of crop production; Chairman of the Board of Fujian Hengwang Investment (metallurgy) Zeng Zhaojiang reported on plans to implement an industrial project in Zhambyl region.
During the visit to the office of SenseTime, the Kazakh delegation was presented with new solutions and equipment used in smart and safe city projects.
As a result of the meeting, 8 commercial agreements totalling $2.5bn were signed.
- Agreement on cooperation between Samruk-Kazyna Invest LLP, QAZAQGAZ AIMAQ JSC and Goldcard Smart Group Co., Ltd. in the field of implementation of smart systems for the amount of $8 million. The project involves small-node assembly of gas meters on the territory of FEZ PIT ‘Alatau’ in Almaty from components supplied by GoldCard, taking into account the localisation of components;
- Agreement between Qarmet JSC and Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group in the field of production of equipment for coal industry on purchase of mechanised complexes for mines of the coal department of Qarmet JSC for the amount of $70 mln;
- Memorandum of Understanding on establishing the framework for investment cooperation between the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, China State Investment Fund Silk Road Fund Co.Ltd. and Kazakhstan Investment Development Fund (KIDF) Management Company Ltd. for the amount of $552 million;
- Agreement between Qarmet JSC and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co., LTD on construction of a plant for production of high-strength cast iron pipes with spheroidal graphite with a capacity of 200 thousand tonnes per year in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the amount of $161 million. The products are intended for projects on construction, modernisation, reconstruction, expansion and renovation of facilities of the housing and communal system of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
- Agreement between Qarmet JSC and China Metallurgical Group Corporation to establish long-term and comprehensive cooperation in the mining and metallurgical industries for the amount of $1 billion;
- Agreement between Qarmet JSC and ACRE Coking & Refractory Engineering Consulting Corporation on implementation of the strategic project on modernisation of coke-chemical production and development of coal chemistry for the amount of $649 mln;
- Agreement between Qarmet JSC and Nanjing Fiberglass Research & Design on construction of a factory for production of mineral insulation from blast furnace slag in Temirtau for the amount of $30 million, with a capacity of 100 thousand tonnes of finished products per year and creation of 200 new jobs;
- A package of agreements between Saran Machinery LLP and Sinotruk International on cooperation in distribution and assembly of KDs, technology licensing and use of trademarks for the amount of $70 million. Among them is a Memorandum on the implementation of a project in Saran for the production of cargo and special-purpose machinery, under which it is planned to create about 1,000 new jobs in the future.
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Olzhas Bektenov and GE HealthCare head discuss project implementation on creation of medical equipment production in Kazakhstan
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Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov within the framework of the Kazakhstan Round Table on Global Investments held a meeting with the Regional President of GE HealthCare Costas Deligiannis. The progress of implementation of the previously signed agreement on the organisation of production of high-tech diagnostic medical equipment GE HealthCare in Kazakhstan was considered, primeminister.kz reports.
GE HealthCare, a subsidiary of the American transnational conglomerate General Electric, is one of the world leaders in the production of medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, as well as the implementation of digital solutions and data analytics systems.
The participants of the meeting discussed issues of localisation of production of advanced medical diagnostic equipment, plans to create a production site and the National Archive of Clinical Images in Kazakhstan. At the first stage of localisation it is planned to produce ultrasonic diagnostic devices and computer tomographs of the latest generation with further expansion of the range of equipment. The centralised archive of medical images will allow to create a Unified Digital Health Space, which will ensure security and proper storage of patients' medical data.
Olzhas Bektenov emphasised that one of the priorities of the Government is the creation of high-quality, accessible and modern medical infrastructure. The importance of introducing digital solutions in healthcare, modernisation and quality equipment of hospitals, training of qualified personnel was highlighted.
In turn, Kostas Deligiannis informed about the company's plans to expand its presence in the Kazakhstan market. Medical institutions of the country, including leading clinics, already uses more than 3 thousand units of GE HealthCare equipment. More than one hundred mammographs have been installed in the regions within the framework of the state oncological programme. At GE HealthCare sites 6 thousand Kazakhstani specialists have been trained.
At the end of the meeting, the parties confirmed their intention to cooperate closely in improving the healthcare system of Kazakhstan.
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Agricultural machinery production is forecast to grow to 300 billion tenge in 2025
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9 out of 10 purchased tractors and combines are assembled in Kazakhstan. This was reported at the Government session by the President of the Union of Industrial Investors Kairat Yelamanov, primeminister.kz reports.
According to him, the annual output of agricultural machinery is 263 billion tenge, forecasted to grow to 300 billion tenge in 2025.
The agricultural machinery industry produces tractors and combine harvesters at 8 enterprises, which already fully meet the annual demand of farmers for this equipment. More than 20 more enterprises are engaged in production of trailed and mounted agricultural machinery and equipment. Import dependence in this area is annually decreasing. As of today, welding, cutting, cutting, bending and painting operations are performed for each model of tractors, combines, as well as for mounted and trailed agricultural machinery. Welding and colouring of tractor cabs, as well as manufacturing of plastic parts for body elements of energy-intensive tractors have been mastered ahead of schedule. Next year, the manufacturers plan to master the production of grain hoppers, inclined chambers, choppers and combine harvester cabs.
The country's largest agricultural machinery localisation centre in Kostanai annually produces 25,000 units, assemblies, components and spare parts for agricultural machinery and automotive industry.
The decision to subsidise farmers when purchasing domestic agricultural machinery this year is already achieving an effect: the interest of foreign manufacturers in localisation will have a positive impact on the growth of production and increase the range of agricultural machinery. Now we are conducting substantive negotiations with foreign manufacturers on localisation of previously imported equipment at the existing sites. This will increase both production volume and jobs in 2025. It is planned to localise AMAZONE sowing machinery, ZOOMLION tractors, SAMPO combines.
Next year, it is planned to allocate 200 billion tenge for preferential leasing of agricultural machinery for farmers at 4-5%. If even half of the funds were allocated in Kazagrofinance JSC from January, before the beginning of sowing works, and the second half in June, before the beginning of harvesting works, then two industries in the country - agro-industrial complex and agricultural machinery - would be guaranteed to work for the development of the country's economy," Kairat Yelamanov said.
The issue of tractor exports remains important, he said. However, the problem is the non-integrated systems of electronic passports of self-propelled machines between Kazakhstan and Russia. Data exchange is already taking place with Belarus.
Another, no less promising area of industry is the production of household appliances. The main enterprises of the new industry are located in the cities of Saran and Almaty. This year about 200 thousand units of household appliances have been produced at the capacities of three enterprises. It is planned to increase the volumes by the end of the year.
This year's amendments to the Tax Code on VAT allowed us to establish a clear procedure for the sale of products along the entire chain from the manufacturer to the end customer. We managed not only to attract the world's leading companies for production, but also to reduce the price for buyers of equipment. At the moment we have already mastered operations on moulding of plastic parts of TV sets and water heaters, billetting, welding, enamelling and painting of parts of ovens, washing machines, cookers and hoods, as well as manufacturing of packaging," Kairat Yelamanov said.
In the coming years, it is planned to master the production of printed circuit board and stamping of metal products.
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